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Thinking and Deciding 15: Quantitative Judgment


The lens model

This part reminds me of Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment. Statistical models systematically outperform human beings with the same information, and yet people really don’t like using these rules. It’s kind of a bummer, since it looks like there are so many wonderful benefits of these statistical systems, and yet people just will not adopt them. So hardheaded.

There was a very interesting study in which expertise and knowledge actually harmed a person’s judgments (371). Participants were given a statistical tool to predict the outcomes of baseball games. Those who knew more about baseball thought they could outperform the rule, and so they did worse than those who knew less and just used the rule. Salty.

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